How the Rockets, Magic or Pelicans (thanks, Lakers!) could win the Wembanyama sweepstakes
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALNBA teams' great "Brick for Vic" campaigns haven't gone exactly as planned.
After spending the summer trading away nearly their entire starting lineup and appearing to put themselves in the pole position for the NBA's worst record, the Utah Jazz are in third place -- not in the lottery standings, but the actual Western Conference standings. And they're not alone.
The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder -- two teams the oddsmakers in Las Vegas pegged to be among the league's worst -- are both off to hot starts. The Indiana Pacers are in the play-in mix in the East.
And then there are the Los Angeles Lakers. They can't get into the mix for Victor Wembanyama, potentially the best prospect since current Lakers star LeBron James, but appear to be unintentionally tanking their way to the bottom nonetheless -- much to the delight of New Orleans Pelicans fans, whose team has the Lakers' 2023 first-round pick.
Zion Williamson and Victor Wembanyama? That's a duo that could take the league by storm.
How about the next No. 1 pick pairing up with this year's No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero in Orlando?
Or maybe there will be a new set of seven-footers in Oklahoma City with Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren.
With nearly four weeks of the season gone, let's take a look at the race to the bottom, dividing 10 teams into two groups: contenders and wild cards.
The contenders
Houston Rockets
Current record: 2-11
Chance of No. 1 pick: 13.6% (per ESPN Analytics' Basketball Power Index)
Tradable veteran contract: Eric Gordon
Finishing with the worst record in the NBA does not guarantee the top pick in the draft -- just ask the Rockets.
In each of the past two seasons, Houston -- which has gone 33-111 since trading James Harden to the Brooklyn Nets -- entered the lottery in the top spot, only to fall both times, ending up with Jalen Green at No. 2 in 2021 and Jabari Smith Jr. at No. 3 in 2022.
Another slow start (they opened 1-16 last season) has the Rockets sitting in the NBA's basement. Their minus-7.9 point differential is third worst in the NBA. It should be pointed out that ten out of their first 13 games have been on the road.
Houston's growing pains aren't surprising, given that the Rockets have 10 players under the age of 23, including eight on first-round rookie-scale contracts. They are the second-youngest team in the NBA, behind only the Thunder.
Because the Rockets own swap rights with Brooklyn, Houston could get two cracks at a top pick in the draft if the Nets miss the playoffs.
As for Eric Gordon, the Rockets have to weigh the impact he has on the young roster -- and the impact he might have in picking up extra wins -- against his value in a potential trade.
Gordon turns 34 in December and is under contract through the 2023-24 season, but his $20.9 million deal for next year is non-guaranteed. He is a career 37% shooter from 3-point range and his 2.0 3-pointers made per game this season are second on the team.
New Orleans Pelicans (via Los Angeles Lakers)
Current Lakers record: 3-10
Chance of No. 1 pick: 6.9%
Would you trade an NBA championship for the chance to draft Wembanyama?
That's the existential question facing Lakers fans, who can take solace in the 2020 championship banner hanging in their arena, even as they stare down the possibility of sending New Orleans the No. 1 pick as part of the trade that brought Anthony Davis to Los Angeles.
That's right: A New Orleans team that has 14 out of its 15 players under contract next season could have two franchise players under contract for the foreseeable future in Williamson and Wembanyama.
And if the Pelicans do not get a top-3 pick from the Lakers this season, they can try again next season.
New Orleans owns an unprotected first from the Lakers in 2024, which can be deferred to 2025.
Unlike some of the other teams on this list, the Lakers won't be looking to make a trade to improve their lottery odds -- but there also isn't a trade out there that can change their playoff fortunes.
The roster is top-heavy with contracts, and outside of Davis, there is no player who has trade value (James cannot be traded this season because of the extension he signed this summer).
The Lakers do have their 2027 and 2029 first-round picks (along with sixth man Russell Westbrook) to include in a deal, but that type of trade would be a quick fix and can't guarantee saving their season.
The most logical direction is for the Lakers front office to ride out the season, even if that means turning over a lottery pick to the Pelicans.
Charlotte Hornets
Current record: 3-11
Chance of No. 1 pick: 7.2%
Tradable veteran contracts: Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Mason Plumlee
Entering the 2013 offseason, Charlotte owner Michael Jordan was asked his thoughts on tanking after the then-Bobcats had finished the year 21-61, the second-worst record in the NBA.
"I don't know if some teams have thought of that. That's not something that we would do. I don't believe in that," he told the AP.
Nine years later, Jordan's anti-tanking stance will once again be tested.
Charlotte is at the bottom of the standings -- the result of an offseason that saw the Hornets make no significant roster changes (outside of not re-signing Miles Bridges after he was charged with domestic violence) and an early-season injury to All-Star LaMelo Ball.
Ideally, the Hornets should be trading away veterans leading up to the trade deadline. But does that defy the belief of the organization?
The infrastructure of young players outside of Ball and P.J. Washington (who can become a restricted free agent this summer) is nonexistent. Plumlee and Oubre would have value to other teams both as players on the court and for their expiring contracts, while Rozier and Hayward have years left on their respective deals beyond this season.
For a franchise that hasn't had the No. 1 pick since drafting Larry Johnson in 1991, holding on to those veterans to make an ill-fated run at a play-in spot might not be worth it. We'll see if Jordan breaks from his 2013 philosophy as the season goes on and the race for Wembanyama heats up.
Detroit Pistons
Current record: 3-11
Chance of No. 1 pick: 13.9%
Tradable veteran contracts: Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Hamidou Diallo, Nerlens Noel and Cory Joseph
There was optimism with the young Pistons roster before the season started.
"I feel like we finally have a full complement of players," GM Troy Weaver told NBA.com in training camp. "First two years, we didn't. We can go and compete every night." Detroit acquired veteran Bojan Bogdanovic from Utah and returned a young core led by Jaden Ivey, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart, Killian Hayes, Jalen Duren and Cade Cunningham, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft.
The Pistons were not a play-in team, but there was a belief that the competitive spirit and development from the last 27 games of last season would carry over.
After starting the 2021-22 season 12-43, Detroit finished 11-16, with only five of those losses coming by double digits.
This season, the Pistons have the league's worst point differential and have lost six games by 10-plus points.
Bogdanovic recently signed a two-year extension but is still eligible to be traded. Burks and Noel both have team options on their contracts for next season, making them essentially players on expiring deals.
Orlando Magic
Current record: 4-9
Chance of No. 1 pick: 12.1%
Tradable veteran contracts: Terrence Ross
The Magic have only 32 wins since the 2021 All-Star break but are trending in the right direction, thanks to the play of recent lottery picks Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
Banchero, the No. 1 overall pick in 2022, became the first player since Michael Jordan to score at least 15 points in each of his first 11 career games.
Wagner, last year's No. 8 pick, is averaging 18.3 points -- the third most among second-year players, behind only Jalen Green and Cade Cunningham.
Despite injuries to key players such as Gary Harris, Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony, Orlando has a point differential of -2.0 and picked up quality wins against the Golden State Warriors, Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns.
The injuries in the backcourt have resulted in Ross going from reserve to starter. Ross is on an expiring $13.5 million contract and is averaging career highs in field goal percentage (46.1%) and 3-point percentage (42.3%).
Oklahoma City Thunder
Current record: 6-7
Chance of No. 1 pick: 13.4%
Tradable veteran contracts: Kenrich Williams and Mike Muscala
The Thunder's season has certainly been strange so far -- especially when accounting for the fact they lost No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren to a season-ending injury before it began.
The youngest roster in the NBA opened the year with three straight losses, then ripped off four wins in a row before dropping four straight. They picked up an impressive win against Toronto to snap the losing streak. Despite a record that has them as a play-in team, BPI still gives OKC the fourth-best chance at landing the top pick with its own pick. The Thunder also have swap rights with the LA Clippers, and their overall odds of the No. 1 pick currently reflect that (but don't expect the Clippers to linger in the lottery mix too much longer this season).
Despite the up-and-down start, there has been progress and development in the early part of the season for the Thunder, who rank No. 14 in defensive efficiency and have lost only three games by double digits.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is in the first year of his rookie max contract extension, is averaging a career-high 31.1 points per game -- seventh best in the NBA.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort are the only Thunder players earning more than $10 million this season. OKC has seven players still on first-round rookie-scale contracts. Because of that, don't expect the Thunder to make a bunch of trades in an effort to improve their lottery odds -- they simply don't have the high-paid veterans who teams like this usually trade away.
Kenrich Williams signed a team-friendly four-year, $27.2 million extension in the offseason.
Indiana Pacers
Current record: 6-6
Chance of No. 1 pick: 4.8%
Tradeable veteran contracts: Myles Turner and Buddy Hield
Despite a respectable 6-6 record and wins against Brooklyn, Miami, Toronto and New Orleans, expect the lottery odds of the Pacers to improve during the season.
Indiana made it known with the trades of Caris LeVert, Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon that the roster is in a transition phase.
The turnover of the roster should continue with Myles Turner and Buddy Hield.
Turner is on an expiring $18 million contract and has rebounded from a left ankle injury that cost him half of last season. The 26 year old is averaging 17.8 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.1 blocks.
Hield has two years left on his deal ($21.2 and $19.3 million) and is averaging 18.8 points on 46.9% from the field and 40.8% on 3-pointers.
In addition to having the salaries of Turner and Hield to match in a trade, the Pacers also have $28 million in cap space, which could allow them to take on salary without sending out any in return.
The Pacers have three first-round picks in June: their own, Boston's and Cleveland's.
San Antonio Spurs
Current record: 6-7
Chance of No. 1 pick: 11.0%
Tradable veteran contracts: Doug McDermott, Josh Richardson and Jakob Poeltl
Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich gave an honest assessment of his roster before training camp started.
"I probably shouldn't say this, but I'll say it anyway, what the hell? Nobody here should go to Vegas on the thought of betting on us to win the championship," he said. "I know somebody will say, 'Gosh, what a Debbie Downer, what if they work really hard?' It's probably not gonna happen."
Despite the Spurs' better-than-expected start, Popovich was probably right. While San Antonio is currently just below .500 and in a play-in spot, the Spurs have the third-worst point differential in the West (ahead of only the Rockets and Lakers).
The Spurs have the fourth-youngest roster in the NBA, with six players on rookie-scale contracts, and have accumulated six first-round picks in trades since July 2021. Two of those are unprotected from Atlanta from the Dejounte Murray trade.
Expect the draft assets to increase leading up to the February trade deadline.
Besides $28.9 million in room to take back contracts in a trade, the Spurs have veterans Jakob Poeltl and Josh Richardson on expiring contracts.
The wild cards
Sacramento Kings
Current record: 6-6
Chance of No. 1 pick: 1.7%
Tradable veteran contracts: Harrison Barnes
We would list the Kings in the contender category if not for the fact that the franchise's last playoff appearance was in 2006.
The Kings also traded a core player for their future, Tyrese Haliburton, to the Pacers for All-Star Domantas Sabonis in February, then sent a 2024 top-14-protected first-round pick to Atlanta this past offseason for shooting guard Kevin Huerter.
Those two moves, combined with the hiring of veteran head coach Mike Brown, indicate that Sacramento's goal this season is to at least reach the play-in tournament, meaning a teardown to improve its odds of landing Wembanyama is unlikely.
In the event that Sacramento does look to trade away players at the deadline, keep an eye on veteran Harrison Barnes, who is on an expiring $18.4 million contract and is averaging 10.9 PPG this season, his lowest since 2014-15.
Utah Jazz
Jazz record: 10-5
Timberwolves record: 6-8
Chance of No. 1 pick: 2.2%
Tradable veteran contracts: Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley and Rudy Gay
In perhaps the biggest twist of the season so far, the Jazz have a decent shot at landing the No. 1 pick next summer -- not with their own pick, but with the one they acquired from the Minnesota Timberwolves in the trade that sent Rudy Gobert to Minnesota.
A month into the season, the Jazz are tied for first in the West and have the league's fifth-best point differential. BPI now gives Utah less than a 0.1% chance of its own pick landing in the top spot.
However, Gobert and the Timberwolves are scuffling. They have the league's seventh-worst record and rank in the bottom 10 in point differential. There's still plenty of season left, but the Wolves are currently in lottery position with a 2.2% projection of landing at No. 1 -- which would send Gobert's countryman Wembanyama to Utah.
Still, because there is plenty of season left, the question -- which ESPN's Kevin Pelton addressed in his mailbag this past weekend -- is whether the Jazz have shown enough to continue trying to win, or if Danny Ainge & Co. should trade more veterans to improve their own lottery odds.
Conley is averaging a career high 8.1 assists and is under contract through the 2023-24 season. Clarkson is averaging 18.1 points and has a player option for next season. Both players would appear to have value to a contender -- whether that contender plays in Utah or somewhere else.
